Denver Broncos 2013 Preview

photo credit: gazette.com

2012 Record: 13-3 (1^st in AFC West)

2012 Season Review: Heading into last season not many people expected the Denver Broncos to be the AFC’s number one overall seed, in fact some even had them missing the playoffs altogether. Coming off an injury and playing in a new situation for the first time in his career, there were just too many question marks surrounding quarterback Peyton Manning. And through the first five and a half games of 2012, those question marks seemed completely validated. The Broncos were sitting at 2-3 and were down 24-0 on Monday Night Football in San Diego. But after rattling 35 straight unanswered points for a victory in that game, Denver would win 10 more in a row for a 13-3 record and the AFC’s number one overall seed. They did bow out of the playoffs early with a disappointing defeat at the hands of the Ravens in the divisional round, but nonetheless they’ll head into this season as the favorite to represent the conference in the super bowl come February.

Offseason Review: Key Additions- OL Lewis Vasquez, WR Wes Welker, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, LB Shaun Phillips, DT Sylvester Williams (draft), RB Montee Ball (draft)….Departures- DE Elvis Dumervil, LB DJ Williams, CB Tracy Porter, S Jim Leonhard….Final Analysis- It’s clear that the biggest move of the Broncos offseason was acquiring former Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker in free agency. In his time in New England Welker was consistently among the league-leaders in receptions, providing Tom Brady with an always viable intermediate target. He should come to Denver and fit right in with his fellow top receivers Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, both of whom had stellar seasons in 2012 as well and should only improve this year as their chemistry with Manning further develops. Welker was not the only major acquisition that this team made to their offense this offseason though, as in March they signed right guard Louis Vasquez to a four-year deal. Vasquez, formerly of San Diego, is one of the league’s top guards and will be very influential to this offensive line in both pass-protection and in run-blocking. Speaking of the Broncos running game, it was actually pretty weak last season. Willis McGahee struggled last season with injuries and was cut, Knowshon Moreno is always on-and-off the injury report, and Ronnie Hillman did little to impress in his time on the field last season. Denver hopes that they’ve remedied this by drafting running back Montee Ball with their second pick. Hillman and Ball should provide a serviceable platoon that will be a nice compliment to their dominant passing attack. On the defensive side of the ball the Broncos main priority should have been to sure up the middle of their defense. They had some minor holes at defensive tackle, middle linebacker, and safety. I like what they did at defensive tackle, picking up Terrance Knighton and drafting Sylvester Williams, but they really did little to improve the other two positions. They’ll be going into 2013 with the unproven Nate Irving at middle linebacker. Also killing this defense going into 2013 will be the loss of their best two overall players, one for the season’s first six weeks and the other for good. A few weeks ago Von Miller was handed a six game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, while Dumervil was lost to Baltimore after a bizarre series of events led to his release. Suddenly this stout defense of a year ago has a few question marks. Grade: C+

Strengths: A few days ago I stated that the New Orleans Saints have the best quarterback and arguably the best passing attack in the league as well. Well if there’s one team that can give the Saints a run for their money in that category it’s the Broncos. First let’s start with their six-time first-team All Pro quarterback Peyton Manning. Peyton will go into this season even more comfortable with his surroundings in Denver, with no injury concerns, and with a drive to win a title that is possibly at the highest of his career after last season’s playoff disappointment. Last year Peyton was absolutely stellar, silencing all of his critics by posting new-or-near-career-highs in completion percentage (68.6), passing yards (4,659), yards per game (291.2), all while throwing just 11 interceptions. I expect all of those stats to improve soundly after the new weapons that Peyton has been given in this offseason on top of the arsenal that he already had. Speaking of that arsenal, the Broncos have arguably the league’s best receiving trio going into the season. Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker are all top-rate guys that could probably be number ones on many teams in this league. Just think about that, they’ll have three number one type guys lining up on the field this season at the same time. Now yes I know that some may be questioning Decker as a number one guy, but the stats just don’t lie. Last year he had 85 receptions for 1,064 yards and 13 touchdowns. Does that sound like a number one receiver to you? Because it sure does to me. In fact let’s combine the stats of these three top receivers last year just for fun. You get 297 receptions for 3,852 yards and 29 touchdowns. Some teams didn’t get that from their entire receiving corps last year, the Broncos got it from three guys! Now obviously when they’re all on the same team the individual stats of each guy will likely go down (or at least that’s what the rest of the NFL is praying). But I still would put this receiving trio up against any other in the league.

Weaknesses: The Broncos obviously will have an incredibly potent passing attack this season so they won’t need much production out of the backfield, but even knowing that I’d be a little concerned about it. Starter Ronnie Hillman was unimpressive in his time on the field last season, while Willis McGahee was released in the offseason, and Knowshon Moreno is constantly injured. Obviously their second-round draft pick Montee Ball should definitely remedy this issue as he was among the NCAA’s best running backs in his time at Wisconsin, but he’ll still take some time to develop just like any other rookie running back. Either way this shouldn’t be a huge concern for this offense when you look at the production that they’ll be getting through the air this season. Running behind a talented offensive line should make things even easier for this group of unproven running backs. On defense you obviously have to be concerned with this once-stellar pass-rush going into the season. After the losses of Dumervil for the season and Miller until week seven, this pass-rush which used to be dominant now looks just so-so. They still have some very talented guys who played well last season in linebackers Wesley Woodyard and Shaun Phillips along with defensive end Derek Wolfe, but those guys will have to step up even more in Miller’s absence. I trust that this front seven will at least be effective this season, but without Miller and Dumervil I highly doubt that they’ll be able to retain their dominance.

Fantasy Breakout Player: Obviously you’d be satisfied with having Peyton Manning or any of the Denver top three receivers on your fantasy roster this season, but as I sleeper pick I really like running back Montee Ball. His pass-blocking and receiving skills will allow him to stay on the field for more downs, leading to even more opportunities for production. Although he was released in the offseason, just look at the numbers that the over-the-hill Willis McGahee was able to put up behind this offensive line (731 yards and four touchdowns in just 10 games). The talented Ball has the potential to be a 1,000-yard, double-digit touchdown type guy this season, and he’ll be a valuable option at a team’s second running back or even the flex spot.

Best Case/Worst Case: Best Case- The Broncos stellar offense once again dominates defenses across the league, rolling to 30-plus points per game. The defense is still stout despite the big losses, playing well especially in crunch time. Denver rolls through a cakewalk schedule into the AFC’s number one overall seed again, except this year they finish the job and take home the Lombardi Trophy. Worst Case- Manning still plays well although he’s not at last season’s MVP-caliber. The offense is surprisingly not dominant, if that’s possible, with the receivers struggling to gel. The lack of a pass-rush early hurts them, as they get off to a slow start and barely squeak out a division title, bowing out prematurely in the postseason again after a tough road loss in the divisional round.

One Word to Describe This Preview for the Lazy: Replicate. The Broncos were easily the best team in the league after week 5 last season. Anyone who didn’t expect them to make a super bowl run going into the postseason was pretty much crazy. But that’s just what happened as their title quest was extinguished extremely early. Now this season they have the same very-reachable goal, win the super bowl. But first they must replicate their outstanding regular season of a year ago. With the pieces that they have in place right now, they’re more than capable of doing so.

Prediction: 13-3